how to calculate probabilities for poker hands

It's our goal to give even more analysis in order to elevate your NFL lineups. View the video below to see how our NFL DFS booms and busts can be used to build successful lineups. Finally, Optimal% is the probability that player will be in perfect lineup that slate. Ceiling is the 75th percentile performance and the Floor is the 25th percentile performance. Bust% is the probability of failing to achieve positional value – 2 fpts. On top of that on a full slate your team has to overperform by about 100 points, which is divvied up across the 9 roster spots.īoom% is the probability of achieving positional target score based on chance of being the top 1 QB, top 2 RB, etc. For instance on DK the average points/$1k for QB's is about 3x while other positions about 2.4x. The Boom and Bust percentages are determined by the probability that each player will reach a target score determined by position and salary. Combining these metrics, you will be able to gain an edge on everyone by identifying under-owned or over-owned players. For each player, we calculate the standard deviation based on a variety of factors and use that to calculate the ceiling (75th-percentile performance) the floor (25th-percentile performance) and the probability that they will bust (not meeting value) or boom (large field GPP winning player). In all DFS sports, being able to compare the strength of a player each day versus their popularity is key to success.

About Our NFL DFS Boom-Bust Tool for Week 16

How to calculate probabilities for poker hands